We’ve reached 1,000,000 observers!
Last month we passed 1,000,000 total observers of verifiable observations! In fact, last month was record breaking on multiple fronts. We had record breaking visitors to the website, new users, observers, observations, and species observed. It’s interesting to have a look back at my post about reaching 150,000 observers less than 3 years ago and some predictions we made for 2020.
One stat where we didn’t break records was the number of identifiers (people who added an identification to someone else’s observation). How is it that last month under 23,000 identifiers working with over 2.7 million observations from over 177,000 observers were able to add enough identifications to tally over 89,000 distinct species? I thought I’d spend this post exploring this in more detail.
The Long Identifier Tail
To put in perspective what a small fraction of the iNaturalist community of identifiers is, the graph below shows all 2,500,000 iNaturalist users where each circle below represents 1,000 iNaturalist users. 51% of users have posted an observation (blue and yellow), but only 4% have made identifications for other people (yellow and pink). Nonetheless, these 107,000 identifiers have generated 53 million identifications for other people compared with 43 million observations generated by 1,265,000 observers (from now on I’m counting all observers, not just observers of verifiable observations as I prefer to do because the data were easier to fetch, but the patterns are the same).
So how can this be? The answer is that activity on iNaturalist, as is characteristic of most crowdsourcing efforts, follows what we call a ‘long tailed distribution’. This means that there are many people doing relatively few actions and relatively few people doing many actions.
This is true for observers but the activity of identifiers is dramatically more long-tailed. In fact because these tails are so long, we can only really view the graph above with log-transformed axes as shown below. For the Observations line, note that while over 1 million people have posted at least one observation, only around 1,000 people have posted at least 10,000 observations. For the Identifications line, there’s a whole order of magnitude fewer identifiers (around 120,000) but also a longer tail of few people doing large numbers of actions relative to the observations line.
Here's another way to visualize this. The graph below shows all contributors (people who have posted at least one observation or one identification). Again each circle represents 1,000 people. The red color indicates the top 1,000 observers. The pie chart shows that these top 1,000 observers account for 28% of all the observations on iNaturalist. The orange, yellow, and green colors show the next 2,000, 4,000, and 8,000 top observers and their relative contributions. Put another way, the top 3,000 observers have posted more observations than the bottom 1,250,000 observers.
The identifier tail is much longer. The top 1,000 identifiers have generated an amazing 70% of all identifications. This is more than twice as many as all other 106,000 identifiers generated.
@kueda pointed out that this is kind of like income-disparity reporting except that the story here is reversed with a a tiny minority sustaining the majority - an interesting analogy.
Are you an identifier yet?
One vulnerability that this very long identifier tail reveals is that even though iNaturalist has over 2.5 million users, the site is extremely dependent on a much, much smaller group of super-identifers. You can see the top 500 identifiers here and I’ll name just the top 10: @aguilita, @sambiology, @greglasley, @johnascher, @maxallen, @john8, @graysquirrel, @maractwin, @joshuagsmith, and @thebirdnerd. Please join me in thanking the small group of super-identifiers for literally making iNaturalist function.
But there’s also an opportunity to take steps to try to grow this identifier community. Statistically speaking, if you’re reading this there’s a good chance you’re not one of these super-identifiers. We definitely encourage you to give identifying other people’s observations a try. Who knows, you might be our next super-identifier! Here’s a video on how to use the identify tool and here are some tips on how to dive into identifying. There’s also lots of good ideas on how to recruit more identifiers on the iNaturalist forum such as this thread.